New Vehicle Supply Up, Prices Down in September

 

Full-size pickup trucks from domestic automakers had the highest inventory, back to levels similar to pre-pandemic days. As has been the case for months, larger and luxury cars also had inventory at the higher end of the spectrum. - Graphic: Cox Automotive
Full-size pickup trucks from domestic automakers had the highest inventory, back to levels similar to pre-pandemic days. As has been the case for months, larger and luxury cars also had inventory at the higher end of the spectrum.

Graphic: Cox Automotive

New-vehicle inventory closed September at its highest level since early June 2021, and the average listing price for new vehicles fell to the lowest point in two months, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data released Oct. 13.

Still, supply remains well below historical norms, and prices are still far higher than in the past. “Supply is improving but demand is staying strong so we’re still not back to inventory levels of years past,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, in a news release. “Despite elevated vehicle prices, soaring interest rates and high inflation, we see no signs that demand is falling off, at least, not yet.”

The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles stood at 1.32 million units near the end of September, compared with a revised 1.23 million vehicles at the end of August. Days’ supply edged up to 42 at the end of September compared with a revised 41 at the end of August.

Supply at month’s end was 54% higher, or 465,000 units, than at the end of September 2021. Days’ supply was 40% higher than at the same time a year ago. While that is a big bump, inventory remains low by historical standards. At the end of September 2020, supply stood at 2.46 million vehicles for a 57 days’ supply. For the pre-pandemic 2019 period, inventory hit 3.45 million vehicles for an 80 days’ supply.

Closing September, the industry had non-luxury vehicle inventory totaling 1.12 million vehicles for a 42 days’ supply. That was up from 1.02 million a month earlier for a 40 days’ supply. Luxury supply stood at 199,975 vehicles for a 47 days’ supply, compared with a month earlier when inventory was just shy of 125,000 units for a 44 days’ supply.

The Cox Automotive days’ supply is based on the daily sales rate for the most recent 30-day period, in this case, ended Sept. 26, when about 937,665 vehicles were sold. According to Kelley Blue Book calculations, new-vehicle sales in September totaled 1.12 million units, up 10% compared to September 2021, but down slightly from August. This September’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was 13.5 million, up from 12.3 million in September 2021, when the chip shortage was at its worst, and up from 13.1 million in August.

New-Vehicle Asking Prices Begin to Retreat

The average listing price – or the asking price – dipped to $46,294 in September, down from a revised $46,398 at the end of August and the lowest level since mid-July, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data. The listing price is running 7% ahead of a year ago and remains elevated from years past. In September 2020, the average listing price was $38,662. In pre-pandemic September 2019, it was $37,110.

The average transaction price (ATP) – the price people paid – retreated from record levels in September at $48,094, according to Kelley Blue Book. September prices dipped 0.3% ($146) from August but were up 6.1% ($2,775) year over year from September 2021. September marked a record 16th straight month of ATP being above sticker price.

Incentives decreased again in September to only 2.1% of the average transaction price, a record low. A year ago, incentives averaged 5.2% of ATP. “If we see inventory build quickly, we can expect increased incentive activity,” Chesbrough said. “Certain brands and models have higher inventory and could be among the first to offer incentives.”

Luxury vehicles have been accounting for a historically high share of new-vehicle sales; that share was 18% in September. The average listing price for luxury vehicles was $65,935 at the end of August, Cox reported. The non-luxury average list price was $44,559 at the end of August. The average transaction price for non-luxury vehicles dipped to $44,215 in September and to $65,775 for luxury vehicles.

Prices are expected to stay high due to continued strong demand, low inventory, record-low incentives and a rich mix of vehicles being made by automakers to buoy profits and revenue. Automakers still are prioritizing available computer chips to high-end, high-margin models instead of entry-level vehicles.

Asian Auto Brands Still Have the Lowest New-Vehicle Supply

Asian non-luxury brands and Japanese and European luxury brands had the lowest inventories. Non-luxury brands with the lowest inventories were Kia, Toyota, Honda and Subaru. Luxury brands with the lowest inventories were Lexus, BMW, Acura and Land Rover.

Volvo had the highest inventory of all brands as measured by days’ supply. Other luxury brands with above-average inventory were Lincoln, Buick and Audi. Once again, on the non-luxury side, Stellantis brands – Ram, Jeep and Dodge – had the highest inventories.

Aside from low-volume high-performance cars, segments with the lowest inventory were mostly highly fuel-efficient cars, including subcompact, compact and midsize cars, hybrids, and minivans. Demand for fuel-efficient vehicles rises as gas prices increase.

Full-size pickup trucks from domestic automakers had the highest inventory, back to levels similar to pre-pandemic days. As has been the case for months, larger and luxury cars also had inventory at the higher end of the spectrum.

Almost half of the 30 highest-selling models in the 30 days that ended September 26 were Asian brands, mostly Kia, Toyota, Honda and Subaru. Kia Telluride was at the very bottom with a scant 16 days’ supply. Of the 30 top-selling models, full-size domestic pickup trucks and SUVs had the most inventory.

In terms of price categories, the lower the price, the tighter the supply. Price categories under $30,000 had the lowest days’ supply at around 30. The $30,000 to $40,000 segment, the largest volume category, had a 35 days’ supply. The $40,000 to $50,000 category had a 42 days’ supply. The more expensive categories had above 50 days of supply.

Originally posted on Vehicle Remarketing


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McLaren F1 creator Gordon Murray owns a Ford Escort

If you’re Gordon Murray, creator of the original McLaren F1, several Formula 1 race cars, and the GMA T.50, what kind of car do you build with your near-unlimited resources and thorough knowledge of automotive engineering? The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is a Ford Escort

Of course, we’re talking about the European Ford Escort, which proved hugely successful both as an affordable compact saloon and as a championship rally machine. Still, a plain white economy car isn’t what you’d expect one of the world’s great engineering minds pushing. A closer look under the skin reveals that it’s not your typical factory Mk I Escort. In fact, almost no part of the car has remained unmodified. 

In a video by The Late Brake Show and shared by Motor 1, Murray conducts an in-depth walkaround of the car. In place of the original 1.6-liter twin-cam is a 2.3-liter Duratec, which is based on a Mazda four-cylinder developed during the time when Mazda was owned by Ford. The difference with this one is that it was built by Cosworth to put out 240 to 250 horsepower and can rev like the dickens.

Any old yutz can swap an engine, right? Sure, but on the opposite end of this Escort lies a bespoke independent rear suspension where a solid axle should be. Murray explains that to best suit the added output from the motor (original Escort twin-cams made about 115 horsepower) the suspension had to be redesigned to lower the roll center. Otherwise, the car would be overly tail-happy. Murray admits that the suspension is probably not stiff enough for track duty but is perfect for street driving, absorbing bumps but not getting any tire hop when he guns it.

The car was built in conjunction with a U.K. shop called Retro Power. They started with a good but rusty shell found in South Africa. The floors was so Swiss cheesed that Murray could see the road passing beneath it, but the body was straight. Over a couple of years, Murray and Retro Power stiffened and sorted the chassis and honed the final product.

The car is replete with pieces that showcase Murray’s signature attention to detail. For example, the 6-speed gearbox is from a Mazda Miata, but he angled the lever slightly so that his hand would fall naturally to the shift knob when he let go of the steering wheel. Murray also removed the rear seats so he could sit further back. The interior boasts a custom dash with touches of Murray’s tartan pattern.

Murray was adamant that he did not want it to look like a hot rod so he kept the steel-wheels-with-hubcaps look, though they appear to be a size larger than stock and wrapped in meatier Yokohama tires. The fender badges read “Cosworth” in the same size as the original twin-cam badges. To counter the parachute effect of the rear panel, he cut two thin slots to mirror the factory slots in the front. A performance exhaust might be the biggest clue to onlookers that this isn’t a stock Escort.

The entire car weighs just a hair over 2,000 pounds. Part of that is made possible by a carbon fiber hood and trunk. The exhaust headers run hot enough, however, that they had to install a heat shield between them and the hood so that they don’t melt the resin. That section of the hood even has some gold foil insulation, a reference to the engine room of the McLaren F1.

Murray says he wanted to build the Escort because he grew up with Fords like the Anglia and Cortina. It’s not about raw power or 0-60 times. Like with anything Murray does, it takes into account the type of driving the owner will do. What he ended up with is likely the coolest and most well sorted Escort Mk I on the planet. 

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Betting on flexibility, China’s Nio will only rent cars in new E.U. markets

BERLIN — Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio will only lease its cars when it launches in four European markets this year, its CEO told Reuters, betting that flexibility will be a key selling point as drivers switch to the new technology.

Users will be able to lease a car with a 75-kilowatt-hour battery for 1,199-1,295 euros ($1,171-$1,264) a month depending on the length of the subscription, which can be as short as a month.

The plan is the latest unconventional move by the company, which already allows customers to rent rather than buy the battery — the most expensive part of an electric vehicle (EV).

Rather than charging their cars at home, Nio owners can also drive them to a battery swapping station to have a new powerpack installed in minutes to save time.

Now, as it prepares to launch in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark, Nio plans to operate its businesses there on a corporate leasing and subscription model, offering all three models available in China — the ET7, ET5 and EL7, with the latter renamed in Europe from its Chinese name of ES7 because of a branding dispute with Volkswagen’s Audi.

“We will not be selling cars,” CEO William Li said in an interview at the company’s new ‘Nio House’ showroom in central Berlin, the first of nine new members club-style venues to open for Nio fans in Europe this year.

“Flexibility is the new premium.”

Nio has sold just under 250,000 vehicles in China and Norway since starting production in 2018. Prices range from around 50,000-70,000 euros ($49,000-$69,000), depending on the car’s range and whether customers buy or rent the battery.

It has so far operated on a make-to-order basis, creating bespoke products for customers and keeping inventory low.

Nio will stick to direct sales in existing markets in part due to less attractive taxation on subscription models in Norway and restrictions around license plates in China, Li said.

BATTERY SWAP

Nio is facing competition in China from a growing number of EV startups from Xpeng to Hozon and Leapmotor as well as larger manufacturers like China’s BYD and Tesla.

In Europe, it will be chasing after Tesla and Volkswagen for the top spot on EV sales.

The plan is to install at least 120 battery swapping stations in Europe by the end of next year, Li said, adding it was not so much a matter of the financial investment but of the time and bureaucracy required to get it done.

The company opened its first plant to manufacture swapping stations in Hungary last month, and would consider producing batteries in the region once it reaches battery sales in Europe equivalent to around 10 gigawatt hours, Li said.

“The advantage of our business separating the car from the battery is that we may reach economies of scale for the batteries faster than the cars,” Li said. “When we reach 10 gigawatt hours, we will consider localizing production.”

In China, where that target has already been met, a team of around 700 people is working on in-house battery production, enabling the company to take control of its battery supply.

In the meantime, Nio is seeking further partners beyond its current supplier, CATL, Li said, adding it aimed to have new partnerships secured next year.

“In the long-run we believe any top company in the automotive industry will soon have in-house battery production,” Li said.

Nio’s revenue grew 22% in the second quarter from a year ago while its net loss more than quadrupled to the equivalent of $410 million.

It delivered just under 32,000 vehicles in September, up 29.3% year on year. Supply chain troubles in China due to COVID-19 lockdowns in August eased faster than expected, Li said.

(Reporting by Victoria Waldersee Editing by Rachel More and Mark Potter)

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Honda to cut car output at two Japanese plants in October

TOKYO — Honda Motor Co said on Thursday it would reduce car output by up to 40% at two Japanese plants for the rest of October from its earlier plans, as the company battles with persistent supply chain and logistical problems.

Two lines at Honda’s Suzuka plant in western Japan will cut production by about 20% in October, while its assembly plant in Saitama prefecture, north of Tokyo, will lower production plans by about 40% for the month.

The automaker said last month it would cut vehicle production at Suzuka by 40% and Saitama by 30% in early October.

Honda blamed delays in receiving parts and logistics on COVID-19 outbreaks and semiconductor shortages. The output reduction will affect vehicles including the HR-V sport-utility vehicle, Stepwgn minivan and Civic compact car.

Honda’s production at the two plants returned to normal for June after an earlier reduction but it began making adjustments again for July.

Honda’s rival Toyota Motor Corp last week lowered its October production target by 6.3% to about 750,000 vehicles because of a shortage of semiconductors.

That announcement came about a week after it had lowered the production target for that month to around 800,000, about 100,000 short of its average monthly production plan.

(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by David Dolan and MarkPotter)

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Grants for Five Projects in Four States Aim to Improve Highway-Railway Crossing Safety


With 2,145 collisions in 2021 alone, improving safety at highway-rail crossings remains a priority for government agencies and safety advocates. - Photo: unsplash.com/Russ Ward

With 2,145 collisions in 2021 alone, improving safety at highway-rail crossings remains a priority for government agencies and safety advocates.

Photo: unsplash.com/Russ Ward

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has awarded a total of $59 million in grants to improve safety at highway-railway crossings in four states: California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania.  The grants are made possible by the FHWA’s Commuter Authority Rail Safety Improvement (CARSI) program.

In 2021 alone, there were 2,145 collisions, 235 fatalities, and 669 injuries at highway-rail crossings nationwide, according to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA).  The objective of the CARSI grants is to improve safety at highway-rail crossings for all travelers — drivers, passengers, motorcyclists, bicyclists, and pedestrians. 

Individual grants for five specific projects across four states range from $4.4 million to $15 million. The five recipients of the latest CARSI grants include:

The Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA), operator of Metrolink, will receive a $12.5 million grant to bring three high-volume at-grade highway-railway crossings in Ventura County up to current SCRAA Grade Crossing Safety Standards and in compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act. The project will add wider medians and signal features that help drivers move away from the track before a train arrives. For pedestrians, it will add emergency swing gates and right-of-way fencing. Also noteworthy, the crossings are located in or near impoverished or disadvantaged communities.

The Southern Florida Regional Transportation Authority (SFRTA) will receive $12.9 million to modernize 25 rail crossings with improved lighting and other safety features on its Tri-Rail commuter rail line in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties. The rail line is in an area where vehicular traffic has increased and where train traffic is expected to increase over the next several years as well.

The New York State Department of Transportation and the Metro North Railroad (MNR) is awarded a $4.4 million grant to make accessibility improvements for pedestrians and warning systems upgrades and to implement other safety improvements at five grade crossings located in Dutchess and Putnam Counties on the MNR’s Hudson and Harlem Lines, which have substantial train volumes.

The New York State Department of Transportation and the Long Island Railroad (LIRR) will receive $14.9 million in funding for work on nine grade crossings located in Nassau and Suffolk Counties on the LIRR’s Central, Main Line, and West Hempstead Branches, including interconnection to traffic signal systems, updates to railroad flashing light signals, installation of audible warning devices, enhanced pedestrian treatments and pathways, signs, and pavement markings for vehicles approaching the grade crossing, and roadway resurfacing and sidewalk expansion.

The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) is awarded a $15 million grant to install gates, add pavement markings, and make other improvements at 22 highway-railway grade crossings in Philadelphia and in Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery counties on its regional commuter rail system, which shares significant trackage with freight carriers.

Highway-rail grade crossing collisions and pedestrian trespass on tracks together account for over 95% of all railroad fatalities, according to data from the Federal Railroad Administration.

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Hertz ties up with BP for EV chargers in North America

Hertz said on Tuesday it has partnered with a unit of oil giant BP to install electric vehicle charging stations across North America to power its fleet of eco-friendly cars. 

The car rental firm, which did not disclose the terms of the deal, aims to electrify one-quarter of its fleet by the end of 2024. 

Hertz has made large-scale EV purchases from Tesla, GM and Polestar amid rising consumer preference for EVs. It has laid out plans to have 3,000 charging stations in North America by the end of 2022. 

As per the deal, BP Pulse will manage the EV charging hubs, which will be open to Hertz customers as well as the general public. 

BP Pulse aims to install more than 100,000 chargers globally by 2030, with about 90% of them being rapid or ultra-fast chargers. 

Shares in Hertz were up 3.8% at $16.31 before the bell. 

Reporting by Priyamvada C in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi

2023 Ram Rebel 2500 HD adds the diesel engine you can’t have in the Power Wagon

Have you been wanting a Ram Power Wagon, but couldn’t pull the trigger because Ram won’t sell it to you with the Cummins diesel engine? Well, today, Ram has an answer for you, and it’s the 2023 Ram 2500 Heavy Duty Rebel. Officially at least. Go ahead and call it Ram Rebel 2500 HD if you prefer. And if you couldn’t tell by now, it’s heavy duty truck week — Chevy released a refreshed Silverado HD earlier this week, and Ford revealed its next-gen Super Duty shortly thereafter.

Similar to the light-duty Ram 1500 Rebel, the HD version is a pickup with some off-road chops and off-road looks direct from the factory. You’ll quickly notice that it looks very similar to a Power Wagon — Ram says much of the exterior design cues are actually shared with the Power Wagon. However, the Rebel differentiates itself with a Mopar “sport performance hood” and Rebel badging throughout. It comes standard with 20-inch wheels and 33-inch off-road tires, but Ram says 18-inch wheels will be made available later in the 2023 model year. It features a unique off-road suspension (optional rear air suspension), four-wheel drive, Warn Zeon-12 winch rated for 12,000 pounds, rear limited-slip differential, rear electronic locker and skid plates to protect the fuel tank and transfer case. Don’t expect it to best a Power Wagon off-road, though, as it doesn’t get above-and-beyond extras like the front-locking differential and electronically disconnecting sway bar.

The powertrain story might be enough to sway you to the Rebel’s side, however, as unlike the Power Wagon, this Heavy Duty Ram can be had with the diesel engine. Ram still makes its 6.4-liter V8 the standard engine in the Rebel (like it is in the Power Wagon), and it makes a respectable 410 horsepower and 429 pound-feet of torque. This setup won’t get you maximum towing capability, but the diesel will, maxing out at 16,870 pounds — a Power Wagon maxes out at 10,590 pounds of towing capacity. The 6.7-liter Cummins turbodiesel inline-six produces 370 horsepower and 850 pound-feet of torque in the Rebel. You get a six-speed automatic with the diesel, but the gas engine comes with an eight-speed automatic. Maximum payload is 3,140 pounds, which is another huge plus for the diesel-powered Rebel over the Power Wagon that maxes out at only 1,630 pounds.

Inside, the Rebel can be had with cloth, Bristol leather or “Natura Plus” leather seats. Optional add-ons include a 12-inch digital gauge cluster, adaptive cruise control, blind-spot monitoring and other driver assistance features. It’s only available in one configuration: Crew Cab with a 6-foot-4-inch bed

Ram says the 2023 Ram Rebel will start at $68,940, including the destination charge. Expect them to roll into dealers during the fourth quarter of 2022 and Autoblog will be driving it in a few weeks. Look for our review Oct. 24. 

Managing EV Battery Health for Greater Uptime


Using primarily Level 1 or Level 2 chargers — and minimizing DC fast charging — is vital to maintaining an EV battery’s current SOH. Understanding this can help to educate drivers and keep them accountable as a part of their vehicle management responsibilities. - Photo: Chris Brown

Using primarily Level 1 or Level 2 chargers — and minimizing DC fast charging — is vital to maintaining an EV battery’s current SOH. Understanding this can help to educate drivers and keep them accountable as a part of their vehicle management responsibilities.

Photo: Chris Brown

The battery is the lifeline of an electric vehicle. It is the power plant that drives the propulsion of the very asset that generates revenue for your organization. To get the maximum use of that asset while minimizing downtime, managing battery degradation should be a fleet operator’s top priority.

Anyone using rechargeable AAA, AA, or D Li-ion batteries and recharging ports knows that over time, those batteries don’t charge up to the same capacity as when new. The same goes for batteries in electric vehicles.

The difference between rechargeable home batteries and an EV vehicle application is that the EV battery sends energy from the vehicle’s powertrain to the electric motor to move the vehicle. As such, EV batteries can not only degrade as they age, but also degrade based on user behavior. The good news is that this is manageable and in our control.

Understand Battery State of Health

When EV batteries degrade, their capacity to hold a charge is reduced. The first recommendation for fleets is to grasp the concept of battery state of health (SOH), which measures the current battery’s charge and discharge capacity compared to when it was new. If a battery’s SOH is 80%, then the battery has 80% of its useful life as compared to when it was new.

Translate that to range on an EV — if the range on an EV was 200 miles when new, at 80% SOH the range would fall to 160 miles.

Check Your EV’s Warranty

If degradation happens prematurely, your battery may be covered under your EV’s warranty. Most EV warranties require the SOH to be below 60% to 70% before a warranty claim can be made. Check your OEM paperwork on the battery for your specific requirements.

Gain Battery Health Data

It is vital to determine battery health using an application to grade or benchmark SOH. There are applications today that offer a predictive modeling mode that mostly comes from user input — though this method can be inaccurate, unreconcilable, and human error prone.

The best approach is to use assessment software and have the battery directly talk to that software, which will accurately reveal how it has degraded and will continue to degrade.  

Accurate data from the assessment tool can help fleet owners uncover driving and charging behaviors to avoid diminishing their asset faster. This data will also allow them to build a better asset management program internally, as well as use the data to boost resale value. 

Use Your Vehicle’s BMS

All EVs come with a battery management system (BMS) that helps manage the charge rate and capacity along with the battery temperature. This system helps manage cell integrity and extend battery longevity.

The battery BMS should not allow you to charge to battery to above 90% or deplete the battery under 10% but the optimum charge zone is 40% to 80% which is called “topping off” in the industry.

Manage Driver & Charging Behavior

The actual operation of an EV and the charging of the battery is the most significant determinant of the battery’s current SOH. Operating the EV and battery out of their normal safe operating area leads to battery degradation.

Metrics such as rate of speed and reduction of speed, types of charging (Level 2 or DCFC), and battery SOC (state of charge) are critical to understand and control. For example, driving at high speed and low temperatures can significantly reduce a battery’s state of health by 10% or more. The 80/20 rule recommends not to let the EV battery drain down less than 20% or charge more than 80%.

Using primarily Level 1 or Level 2 chargers is vital to maintaining the battery’s current SOH. Understanding this can help to educate drivers and keep them accountable as a part of their vehicle management responsibilities.

A study by telematics company Geotab confirms that after 48 months of analyzing EV battery health, it found that vehicles leveraging DC fast charging more than three times per month in seasonal or hot climates had their batteries degrade 10% more than never using DC fast charging.

It is easy to see why understanding battery degradation data for used electric vehicles is just as important as mileage is for ICE vehicles. This is also critical when remarketing the vehicle because used vehicle buyers will want to know the state of health of the battery in the vehicles they are purchasing.

Maintenance Savings

Switching to electric vehicles will provide service and maintenance advantages, as a battery electric vehicle has fewer moving parts. In fact, there are about 20 moving parts in an electric engine compared to nearly 2,000 in an ICE engine. That is music to a fleet manager’s ear in terms preventive maintenance and regular service intervals.

Battery electric fleet vehicles can increase efficiency, reduce cost, and even create second-life income streams after the battery comes out of first-life service. With the high cost of fuel, EVs can save fleet operators two to three times the operating cost of an ICE engine. However, these savings won’t be realized if the battery is not managed to its optimal condition.

About the Author: John Ellis, The EV Guy, can be reached at [email protected].

Useful Facts and Insights Derived from Remarketing Data


Kevin Chartier, vice president of Manheim Consulting, showed how data can deliver applicable points that inform business decisions during his Aug. 18 presentation, “Strategic Insights That Drive Decision Making.” - Photo: IARA

Kevin Chartier, vice president of Manheim Consulting, showed how data can deliver applicable points that inform business decisions during his Aug. 18 presentation, “Strategic Insights That Drive Decision Making.”

Photo: IARA

Numbers mean nothing unless they add up and intersect in ways that help a business gain insight, maximize performance, or improve operations.

Kevin Chartier, vice president of Manheim Consulting, showed how data can deliver such results that inform business decisions during his Aug. 18 presentation, “Strategic Insights That Drive Decision Making.” He spoke during the International Automotive Remarketers Alliance Summer Roundtable in Nashville.

Manheim, which now has 22,000 dealers on its DealerTrack platform, can look at comprehensive data across many industry sectors and transactors. Also, about two thirds of all consumers who buy a vehicle either touch Auto Trader or Kelley Blue Book along the way. Both brands are owned by Cox/Manheim.

Chartier offered a random mix of data-driven observations and trends about the state of the industry and market shifts.

No Crashes Ahead

The industry will not see a major crash in resale values in 2022, he said. Used vehicle price increases outpaced new vehicle prices in 2021, squeezing up the against new. One-year-old used vehicles saw an average 31% price increase, and three-year-olds, 35%. One- to two-year-old vehicles are impossible to find.

Drawing on data since 1995 that spanned four major correction events, Chartier defined a vehicle market crash as spurred by plunging demand, extreme oversupply of new and used vehicles, and aggressive incentives and discounting as dealers try to clear inventory into falling demand.

“We don’t have any of those conditions today,” he said. “It’s very unlikely we have a crash unless there’s some unforeseen economic calamity.”

Despite solid used demand being relatively flat since spring, the monthly sales rate (by month) next year will increase over this year, he said.

No Recovery Either

Since COVID struck in 2020, the automotive industry has produced eight million fewer vehicles in a market demanding 16.8 million vehicles, Chartier said. “The long-expected production recovery has stalled, and we are worse this time of year than we were at the start. We’re not remotely close to excessive new vehicle supplies.”

Auction inventories are running about a third or less of typical volume. The only place for inventory is on dealer retail lots which averages a 48 days’ vehicle supply. Most dealers maintain 45-60 days’ supply. That means no incentive discounting.

In 2021, used vehicle prices were up an average of 33%, and new vehicle prices, up 14%, he said. The market will see higher than normal new vehicle prices (+9%) but used car values are cooling slightly compared to last year (-5%). Look for a constrained long-term supply market at least through 2025, for new and used vehicles.

Redefining Vehicles Sales Markets

One of the great auto industry transformations underway is the blurring of lines between resale and wholesale markets, Chartier said. The Carvana-ADESA deal was “a major cannon shot in that direction, and they are not the only one doing it.” OEMs are getting into the act as well, and “if you don’t understand how the retail market works, you will be in trouble.”

That means vehicles can be shown the way consumers will see them at the time of appraisal. “If you’re going to play in this new world, you need to learn how to play in retail. You need to get smart and sophisticated like the dealers.”

Artificial intelligence image protection and high-definition imaging will automate damage detection, leaving no doubts among those best-in-class images that buyers will zoom in on, Chartier said.

“Right now, different condition report writers on different days will score differently. Digital imaging is consistent. Now you have inspectors reading images and feeding the information back in.”

He estimated about 75% of damages are being assessed through A.I., which will accelerate the accuracy of data, create more avenues for it, and generate new insights that empower business decision making.

In trying to make sense of so much data coming from every direction, Chartier reminded the audience, “Data in and of itself is not very interesting, unless it helps you do something useful.”

Originally posted on Vehicle Remarketing

Tesla is crushing the competition on electric-car charger costs

The cost of setting up an electric-car charging station can vary greatly, according to our latest Commercial EV Charger Price Survey that looks at how hardware and installation costs are shaping up.The 7-22 kilowatt AC chargers — which are found at locations such as hotels and take several hours to juice a battery — can be priced as low as $238 and as high as $10,000, with a larger, fast-charging 150 kilowatt DC unit costing between $16,335 and $135,000.

As hurdles to charging remain front and center to power the EV revolution, there are huge differences across the world with vastly different outcomes on price.

Geography plays a role — the cheapest chargers are produced in Asia, where there are differing certification standards, quality and production volumes. Reliability is also a huge concern, so the software and maintenance offering and the ability for a supplier to help navigate local installation complexities comes into play. Often, companies charge thousands of dollars more for similar products because of successful marketing, making prices in the top end look increasingly unsustainable.

While average AC charger prices have remained relatively stable since our survey two years ago, average DC charger prices have dropped by as much as 28%. Even as the industry struggles with inflation, supply-chain shortages and installation issues, some companies are finalizing projects at a fraction of the cost of what their competition is paying. That means there’s significant potential for long-term efficiency gains across the industry.

Thanks to healthy demand for home chargers in Europe, the region’s AC charger manufacturers have built up a similar scale than their rivals in Asia. In the DC market, however, Chinese suppliers are producing far more than peers in any other region. BNEF expects the world’s biggest car market to add more than 390,000 DC chargers this year — that’s six times the projected installations in the rest of the world. Chinese companies are looking to expand abroad, so their growth could squeeze suppliers elsewhere.

The U.S. is trying to protect its interests with the introduction of a “Built in America” mandate. The new rules require chargers to be assembled in the U.S. starting next year and contain 55% locally-made parts by 2024 to qualify for federal aid. There is ongoing discussion about waiving certain requirements in the short-term to avoid slowing infrastructure projects as suppliers may not be able to meet the mandate. But the rules have also resulted in manufacturers including Wallbox, Flo, Tritium announcing plans to set up factories in the U.S. Last week, Swiss engineering giant ABB said it would erect a plant in Columbia, South Carolina, with a capacity to make 10,000 chargers a year.

The adverse effect of the mandate could be that charger prices in the U.S. rise above those in other regions, hurting charging operators and slowing EV adoption. But politicians backing the regulation insist that America’s bolstered scale will eventually help bring down charger and project prices.

The thing is, government funding isn’t always great for efficiency gains. Some 60-85% of applications for grant programs in the U.S. and Canada analyzed by BNEF hit the maximum allowed costs per connector. A better process, such as auctions, may breed more competition.

Tesla is already showing how to keep expenses low, with one of its Texas grant applications containing project costs of as little as $42,000 per connector. This compares with $100,000 to $250,000 per connector across competitors in the European Union and North America.

The company is benefiting from its experience, manufacturing synergies and scale. It installed around 11,000 Superchargers last year, with an average of around 10 units per station and some with over 50, dwarfing most competitors. The chargers are bereft of screens and payment terminals, cutting down costs and complexity, and the carmaker is leading on simplifying installation. Tesla earlier this year posted a video on Twitter how it deployed 12 Superchargers at a Florida site in eight days with chargers pre-fabricated in concrete.

Still, it would be naïve to think the logistics and installation issues that are raging in the construction industry aren’t also affecting charger roll-outs. In fact, installation times increased on average from two years ago, with delays in permitting and utility connections cited as key stumbling blocks.

With annual charger installations expected to climb between five and twenty-fold over the next decade depending on the country, authorities don’t have long to solve the issues. That means costs in the EV charging space will continue to be in flux for some time.